Adirondack:

Perhaps the most intriguing team to watch in the East as the new season opens, the Phantoms have new digs in a new city, and a very solid lineup heading into the campaign. New coach Greg Gilbert is hardly new to the AHL, and gives a steady hand at the wheel behind the bench.  The Phantoms have a lot of Philly holdovers on the squad, including Jonathan Matsumoto (who always seems to score against Hershey), David Laliberte, Patrick Maroon, Danny Syvret and Sean Curry.  Throw in newcomers Krys Kolanos (formerly of Houston and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton), Lukas Kaspar (formerly of Worcester) and d-man Joey Mormina, there’s little question that Adirondack has the makings of a very solid core group in Glens Falls. Rookie James Van Riemsdyk will likely add to the mix as well.

Now for the question mark.  How will the Phantoms fare in goal?  Adirondack seems poised to begin the year with two new goalies, one rookie and one 28-year old who has never played outside of Sweden.  Johan Backlund will play his first season in North America this year, and his adjustment to playing on this side of the pond could potentially be key to ADK’s chances in the East.  The Flyers also have their 2009 fifth round pick and last year’s QMJHL MVP Nicola Riopel in the mix in upstate New York, at just 20 years of age. If Riopel becomes this season what Michal Neuvirth was to Hershey in 2009, look out.

All in all, the Phantoms look like a playoff team at the open of the season.  Goaltending will have a lot to say on whether they just sneak in, or look like a force to be reckoned with come April and May.

Prediction: Third Place, East Division, 92 points

Albany:

The River Rats had a glimmer of postseason action in back-to-back seasons in 2006-07 and 2007-08 before missing the dance last season.  With the addition of insta-rival Adirondack just up the road from Times Union Center, plus a steady diet of Hershey, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and Binghamton week in and week out, the Rats will be very hard pressed to return to the Calder Cup playoffs in 2010.  Rebounding from a last place finish in 2008-09 will be even more difficult without many guys in the room that have tasted big victories lately.

Mike Angelidis is back from last year’s club, along with Brett Carson and Tim Conboy.  That’s a decent start.  The vermin added some toughness in the offseason, grabbing Zack Fitzgerald from Manitoba and Steven Goertzen from San Antonio.  But there’s not a lot of roster depth provided by the parent club in Carolina.  Certainly not enough to compete with the beasts that inhabit the same division they do. Justin Peters is back in goal for the Rats, and he’ll have to stop a ton of pucks to vault Albany over one of the big boys to get in next spring.

Times Union Center can be a tough place to play some nights. The Rats aren’t going to lay down for anybody.  But it’s not going to be enough in this race.

Prediction: Sixth Place, East Division, 71 points

Binghamton:

It’s been a long time between playoff drinks for the Senators, who last made the postseason during the NHL lockout season of 2004-05 when Jason Spezza and company roamed Broome County Veterans Memorial Arena.  A steady flow of dark times and poor play has followed that 2004-05 team; a team that was unceremoniously dumped in the first round of the 2005 Calder Cup playoffs at the hands of Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. But now there is light emerging from the darkness. Believe it: the Sens look to be the most improved team in the East heading into opening night.  Write it down: Binghamton will make the 2010 Calder Cup playoffs.

Binghamton’s biggest weakness over the last three or four seasons could very well be its biggest strength this year as goaltending moves to the forefront. Former AHL All-Star Mike Brodeur and former Wilkes-Barre/Scranton backstop Andy Chiodo figure to be the two guys to stop the puck this year in the southern tier.  With many of the cast back from last season that was a decent group of players, the addition of Martin St. Pierre will make Bingo’s power play a tough unit to defend against.  Former Bear Don Nachbaur is the new coach in Binghamton, making his AHL head coaching debut after a very successful junior career, most recently with the Tri-City Americans (WHL). Denis Hamel, at age 32, returns to the Binghamton lineup after scoring just 25 goals last season.  The thought of St. Pierre teaming with Hamel on the power play in any capacity could make for some sleepless nights for other East Division coaches. Perhaps they even play together at even strength.  In any event, the drought in Binghamton will end this season.  The Senators are bound for postseason play.

Prediction: Fourth Place, East Division, 88 points.

Hershey:

The defending Calder Cup champs look poised for another run as 2009-10 opens, but in the ultra-tough East Division, nothing is preordained.  A blood clot has sidelined Tomas Fleischmann for the start of the season in Washington, which certainly could open a door for Chris Bourque, Alexandre Giroux, Keith Aucoin or even Quintin Laing on opening night.  On paper, it looks like Michal Neuvirth could be back for an encore with the Bears, but a good camp for him or an injury up top in Washington could change that quickly.  The Bears also have a hole it would seem on the right side with the offseason departure of Graham Mink to Florida/Rochester, breaking up a line of Giroux/Aucoin/Mink that was perhaps the most dominating in the league last season.

The forwards otherwise look very strong.  The left side looks especially thick with talent with the return of Boyd Kane from Philadelphia. Toughness with Brandon Sugden and Grant McNeill (due back in November) is unquestioned.  Bryan Helmer returns to anchor a defensive corps that could have Karl Alzner, John Carlson, Greg Amadio and Tyler Sloan on board depending on how the chips fall in D.C.  Without Mink on the right side, the Bears need Andrew Gordon (21 goals and durable as anyone last year) to maintain that level of offense and hopefully improve upon it.  At some point, Hershey needs someone to fill the role of Mink on the number one line, provided that Giroux and Aucoin are both in town. The continued development and increased offensive production of Jay Beagle, Oskar Osala, Francois Bouchard and Mathieu Perreault are imperative to this team’s success.

The Bears are not without question marks, but with tremendous depth at nearly every position, it would seem that the boys from Chocolatetown are again the favorite to finish at the top of the East. 

Prediction: First place, East Division, 100 points

Norfolk:

Ah, the thrill of having your ship tied to the Tampa Bay Lightning.  When the Chicago Blackhawks bolted for Rockford a couple of years back, a lot of people in the East certainly had to think a trade down was in the works for the boys from the south in terms of talent in the pipeline.  Sadly for Admirals fans, no real reason to think it’s going to be a whole lot different this season. After just nosing out Albany to escape the East cellar late last season, there’s not much reason to be optimistic at Norfolk Scope this season. Former Bears defenseman and Norfolk head coach Darren Rumble deserves better.

Well, at least the weather is nice in Hampton Roads. 

Here’s what’s gone from Norfolk from last season. RW Brandon Segal (Los Angeles), LW Justin Keller (unsigned FA), C Bracken Kearns (Rockford), RW Grant Potulny (retirement), C Chris Gratton (unsigned FA), D Daryl Boyle (Rockford), C Pete Zingoni (Houston), D Jamie Heward (unsigned FA), D Richard Petiot (Chicago Blackhawks), RW Jason Ward (Philadelphia), D Brent Henley (Hartford), F/D Wade Brookbank (Pittsburgh), G Craig Kowalski (Europe), G Karri Ramo (Europe), G Mike McKenna (unsigned FA).   So the Admirals will have new goaltending led by the somewhat highly touted rookie Dustin Tokarski. There are a few faces back from last year that could contribute, such as Riku Helenius, Paul Szczechura, Zenon Konopka, Brandon Bochenski and Blair Jones.  With Bochenski, the question is which player will show up.  Will it be the one that was good for almost a goal a game in Norfolk back in 2006-07 (and who also scored 11 goals in 31 games for Boston in the NHL the same year!) or the guy that was more or less a non-factor much of last season for the Admirals. To have even a glimmer of a postseason berth, Norfolk needs Bochenski, Konopka and Jones as well as Szczechura to have big years. It’s tough to think all of that will happen. 

The Admirals will pull it together again someday.  But that day doesn’t appear to be happening anytime during 2009-10.

Prediction: Seventh Place, East Division, 65 points

Syracuse:

Easily the toughest team to gauge heading into the new season, after a jump from the North Division to the East for 2009-10.  How will the Crunch fit among its new division rivals?  Syracuse has seen a lot of Binghamton and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton over the last few years, but certainly not much of Norfolk, Hershey, or the Phantoms.  They’re tough, play physical and still have Jon Mirasty around.  If goaltender Dan LaCosta can keep them in games, the guess here is that Syracuse will hang around for a playoff chance until late in the season.  Columbus hasn’t exactly stocked the cupboard in Syracuse with talent the last couple of years, and that hasn’t changed as far as we can tell in 2009-10.  As tough as the Crunch are likely to be physically (making the War Memorial a challenging place to play this season), someone has to put the puck in the net at some point in central New York. A full recovery from playmaking defenseman Jonathan Sigalet could help. Pascal Pelletier could be in the ‘Cuse, where he could give fans there a thrill night in and night out.  But he could just as easily be an insurance policy for the Jackets in C-Bus.  Without many other options offensively, the Crunch are likely to be on the outside looking in when the music stops. 

Prediction: Fifth Place, East Division, 80 points

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton:

Given the rivalry between the two teams, and the fact that there will be 12 meetings between the Penguins and Bears this season, there’s no reason to think either in Wilkes-Barre Township or Hershey that the road to the playoffs isn’t I-81. That doesn’t mean that things have stayed the same up north.  The Penguins look to be a team built from the goalmouth out, with tremendous goaltending returning to the WB with John Curry and Adam Berkhoel. It’s possible that the Pens have the best collection of depth on defense, with almost everyone back and the addition of former Phantom Nate Guenin and former Bridgeport skater Chris Lee. Expect Lee to be their point man on the power play this season, and he could be a good one. The one guy that doesn’t look like he’ll return is Alex Goligoski, as he plays himself onto Pittsburgh’s roster.

The biggest change in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is the offense.  It’s going to be a very young group of forwards with the departure of Chris Minard, Janne Pesonen and Jeff Taffe.  That’s over 200 points gone from last year’s team. Mark Letestu, the biggest and most pleasant surprise in last year’s lineup (going from 18 points to 61!) will have to produce again, or it’s going to be a long and potentially boring year at Wachovia Arena. There’s very little question that a lot of the new guys will produce one day, it’s just a matter of whether or not it happens all at once in 2009-10.  Eric Tangradi, a native of Philadelphia, scored 38 goals for Belleville (OHL) last year, and is a former second round pick with Anaheim.  Luca Caputi and Dustin Jeffrey will be counted on heavily as well.

They’re the Penguins.  They always seem to be good, and their parent club is the defending Stanley Cup champs.  No reason to think they won’t be in the mix for home ice come playoff time.

Prediction: Second Place, East Division, 96 points